-LRB- CNN -RRB- -- If you set your alarm this morning for quarter-past ungodly -LRB- California time -RRB- to catch the predawn announcement of the Oscars nominations , then we 're in the same twisted little club . The Order of the Oscars Freaks .

Years before Oscars handicapping became an official Olympics sport -- What ? It 's not ? -- two fellow Oscars-obsessed friends and I made an annual game of trying to predict who 'd get nominated . I never won -LRB- I tied once -RRB- , but I never lost my enthusiasm for it ; that is until every magazine and website came along with their own predictions and took the fun out of it .

This year for old times ' sake we revived our game , only doing the best actor category because it 's been an impossibly full year of great male lead performances that have stumped the prognosticators .

My 14-year-old nephew Miles was in on it because he 's been a rabid Oscar fiend since he was at least , oh , 12 . Call out a category -- best actress say -- and a year -- 1966 -- and he 'll holler back `` Julie . Christie , not Andrews . '' Am I proud , or concerned ? Today the results came in and we all tied with four corrects each , but with different names on our lists .

Jude must have known Christian Bale had the gale winds of `` American Hustle '' at his back . David , a great strategist , and Miles the Scorsese devotee , both recognized Leo DiCaprio 's high standing with the Academy , even if Miles wo n't be seeing that film anytime soon , I pray . We all had faith in Bruce , Matthew and Chiwetel -LRB- funny how we know them all by first name . -RRB- I held out for Robert Redford because , well , he 's Redford , and because I 'm un-young . That should teach me to stop leading with my heart . But did anyone ever imagine that betting against Mr. Oscars himself , Tom Hanks , could pay off ? If I had I would have won for once .

Of course , Oscar mania is not just about the horse race . It 's also the spectacle , the show around the show . The history . I 'm a diehard . I have n't missed an Oscars since I got hooked as a teen . My favorite year was 1978 , the night Jane Fonda and Jon Voight took the best leads categories for `` Coming Home . '' Justice ! Glory !

As a professional plower of the fields of celebrity , with a license to fawn and gush -LRB- want to see my card ? -RRB- I 've attended the Oscars , been inside the crimson cocoon , felt the collective shock when `` Shakespeare In Love '' beat `` Saving Private Ryan '' for Best Picture . I 've stepped on a few gowns . Not even the cruel realization that there are essentially two red carpets -- velvet stanchions separate the stars on one side from the rest of us attendees -- could squelch my blind and blinded-by-the-flashbulbs enthusiasm .

But like most true believers I have my moments of doubt . If you are not in our little club , I get where you 're coming from .

To the Osc-nostics it is all too much , too little , and certainly , should you try to slog through the entire three-and-a-half hour ceremony on March 2 , too late . It is kind of preposterous : over-hyped , over-scored , overwrought .

In poor Oscar 's defense , for the past decade or so Hollywood 's big night has had to suffer indignities that the Academy of Old could n't have imagined : dwindling viewership , the cultural-relevance supremacy of TV over movies , an attention deficit that just ca n't sit still for the live-action shorts category , acting and directing victories basically pre-called by critics and Tweeters and bookies , James Franco .

There 's desperation in the air . Oscar 's been trying too hard . This year 's host Ellen Degeneres will take care of some of that , I 'm sure . You never see her sweat . Plus , there 's red carpet fatigue , as the Oscars limp on high heels to the finish line of a bloated awards season as overextended as Christmas and the NFL . Critics ' awards , the People 's Choice Awards , the Golden Globes , the SAG Awards â $ '' you can only cut to a reaction shot of Jennifer Lawrence so many times before it constitutes stalking . But is it Oscar 's fault that everyone else wants in on the action ?

I recognize the madness -- struggle with it -- but it 's hopeless . I just ca n't shake my addiction . Will I sound like I 'm on the Academy 's payroll if I argue that the Oscars really are a great national tradition ? Movies , of course , which might actually be getting better . And stars , our collective guilty delight . And glamor , maybe even a modicum of sophistication .

And there are less-lofty traditions to savor : Carping about his speech , dissing her dress . Trying to catch a loser register a little disappointment . Enduring campy production numbers with aerialists . Dutifully filling out the ballots at your friend 's Oscars party even if the only movie you saw that year starred Adam Sandler . It 's all part of the ritual . The knowing that it 's all too much , but the kind of too much that some of us just ca n't get enough of .

The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Tim Allis .

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If you watched early morning Oscars nominations , you 're in Tim Allis ' Order of Oscar Freaks

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Allis : It 's not just a horse race : Oscar mania is the spectacle , the show , the history

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Allis : Academy of Old could n't have imagined dwindling viewership , competition from TV

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Despite its excesses , he says , Oscars are a great national tradition , with a little magic